Israel votes: polls vs the market
27 Oct 2026 election for the 26th Knesset. 120 seats, 61 to govern. Polls close 22:00 Israel (4 PM ET); exit polls then, the final count may take until Thursday.
Final TV polls (23 Oct), seats
| Poll | Yashar | Likud | Together | Netanyahu bloc |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH 12 | 23 | 21 | 15 | 50 |
| CH 13 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 50 |
| KAN 11 | 22 | 20 | 14 | 50 |
| CH 14 | — | 30 | — | 62 |
Only Channel 14 puts Netanyahu's bloc at 61 or more. Turnout by noon: 31.5% (2022: 28.4%), Central Elections Committee.
Polymarket: next prime minister
- Eisenkot61%
- Netanyahu27%
- Bennett8%
Snapshot 27 Oct 13:54 Israel time. A betting price, not a poll: the prime minister is whoever can build a 61-seat coalition.
Sources: Channel 12, Channel 13, Kan 11, Channel 14 final polls (23 Oct 2026); Central Elections Committee turnout via Haaretz and Ynet; Polymarket "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election". Checked live on our TikTok broadcasts.